From Lakers to interest rates, numerous factors could impact Las Vegas’ NBA future

In mid-July, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver made his annual media appearance at the league’s Summer League tournament in Las Vegas, about four months after NBA owners had voted unanimously to explore the city as a potential expansion site. Silver told reporters at that time that “no votes have been taken yet” to finalise expansion and there was still “a ways to go in terms of discussions”, but overall the commissioner was “optimistic about the future here”.

Since then, there have been multiple developments of note regarding a potential Las Vegas NBA franchise, which has been treated as an inevitability for several years. After all, the city already hosts Summer League, the NBA Cup in-season tournament finals and the training camps for the US men’s national team, which is composed almost entirely of NBA All-Stars.

But while there are plenty of reasons why the NBA and Las Vegas would be interested in each other, there are factors impacting both parties that could impact the possibility of expansion.

One of these factors is the flurry of activity regarding NBA ownership. Last week, the basketball world was stunned to see that the Los Angeles Lakers were being sold to an investor group headed by venture capitalist Josh Kushner and former Disney CEO Bob Iger in a deal valuing the franchise at a whopping $12.5 billion. That figure obliterated the former NBA record of $10 billion, which was also set by the Lakers when they were sold to Mark Walter less than a year ago.

For Las Vegas stakeholders, the purchase was notable for two reasons: Kushner and Iger were considered one of the frontrunners for an expansion bid there, and the Lakers’ purchase immediately raised the average league valuation by a considerable amount while discussions are still ongoing.

Simmons: Vegas price now $9 billion-plus

If Kushner and Iger were leading the pack for a Las Vegas franchise that ostensibly has upside potential, why would they pivot to an existing team for a record price? One answer might have come from Bill Simmons, the former ESPN journalist whose podcast is among the highest-rated in the US.

Simmons said on his show on Tuesday that the bidding price for the Las Vegas team “unquestionably, is over $9 billion now”. Although unconfirmed, that figure does fall within the initially reported range of $7 billion to $10 billion. That is a steep price for an unproven team without a ready-made arena.

“Iger and Kushner were trying to get it, they didn’t have the highest bid,” Simmons said. “They didn’t really feel like a Vegas team, where it’ll probably need a new arena – and who the hell knows in Vegas – is worth that much.”

To put the $9 billion figure into perspective, the current market capitalisation of Caesars Entertainment is $6 billion, while Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts are just slightly higher at $10 billion. If wealthy investors are considering such a price to invest in Las Vegas, they could theoretically just put that capital toward those entities, especially a company that owns its real estate like Wynn.

Should the purchase price crest over $9 billion, the added spend for a new arena would drive the combined costs near or above the price of the Lakers, a historic franchise which has won 16 NBA championships. With about 3.9 million residents, the population of Los Angeles, the nation’s second-most populous city, is nearly six times larger than Las Vegas. The closest comparable project, the Athletics’ MLB stadium on the Strip, has seen its costs rise to over $2 billion with almost two years still to go until opening.

UWM, Ishbia in trouble?

For the NBA, Las Vegas is one piece of a broader ownership puzzle that is becoming increasingly complicated. The league’s ideal scenario would be to add two expansion teams to keep conferences aligned evenly or not expand at all.

Seattle, which hosted the SuperSonics franchise from 1967 to 2008, was also approved as a preliminary expansion site alongside Las Vegas this spring. There has been significantly less interest in that team, however, and the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks might’ve taken a prospective buyer off the table when that franchise sold for a league-record $9.6 billion to venture capitalist Vinod Khosla in July. If Seattle falls through it might make a one-team expansion less likely for Las Vegas, even with the immense interest.

Two other existing NBA teams are also engulfed in ownership intrigue. One is the Phoenix Suns, which were purchased by mortgage mogul Mat Ishbia in 2023 at a valuation of $4 billion. Days before Ishbia bought the team, he secured two loans from JPMorgan to help with liquidity. Ishbia pledged 805 million shares in his company United Wholesale Mortgage as collateral.

That stake was worth $4.6 billion at the time, but is now worth just $1.15 billion as UWM shares have dropped almost 75% in the last year. UWM posted a net loss of over $450 million in Q2 due to a botched acquisition and a failed hedge related to that deal.

The situation is not considered dire yet as Ishbia scrambles for alternatives, but if things continue to go south an asset sale could be the only solution, per reporting from journalist Joe Pompliano. Ishbia has also been in mediation with the Suns’ minority owners, who alleged in a 2025 lawsuit that he has used the franchise as a “personal fiefdom for his own personal gain”.

The Dundon dilemma

Meanwhile in Portland, the local community is none too pleased with the TrailBlazers’ new owner, Tom Dundon. Since purchasing a majority stake in the team at a $4.25 billion valuation in 2025, Dundon has slashed costs in several ways, including reducing staff travel and coaches’ pay.

Dundon is currently in a heated fight with local officials to provide hundreds of millions in public funding to renovate the Blazers’ arena, but many feel his true intent is to relocate the team at the first opportunity. One vacant spot that could be filled, as league observers have noted, is Las Vegas – both the Raiders and the Athletics moved there after failed public funding negotiations with the city of Oakland. Nevada provided public funding to help construction of both teams’ Las Vegas stadiums.

“My read, your read, everyone’s read probably is that he doesn’t seem that enthusiastic about remaining in Portland,” Portland City Councilman Dan Ryan told KATU this week. “I don’t think that’s a mystery. We’re not saying anything news-breaking right now.”

With that in mind, NBA owners could hold off on finalising expansion if there’s a real possibility of Las Vegas getting a team anyway. Approving expansion would grant them a nice cheque from the fees, but it would also dilute their future earnings, as league revenue would then be split among 31 or 32 teams rather than 30. Interested buyers may also prefer to wait and see if Ishbia needs rescuing in Phoenix, as that price would likely come in below Las Vegas’ projected $9 billion tag.

Too much for Las Vegas?

Economic factors will play a role in considerations, for both Las Vegas and the US overall. Las Vegas saw an unprecedented stretch of performance from 2021-2024 when Americans emerged from pandemic lockdowns with an influx of government stimulus money. Selling an NBA franchise during that stretch might have been easier, as things have tailed off since the start of 2025.

Gaming revenue has vacillated during that span, but tourism and air travel have both lagged significantly. Visitation fell 7.5% in 2025 and has been down in three of six reported months in 2026. Air travel declined 6% in 2025 and is down a further 7% this year. Stakeholders are especially worried about international traffic, which is -10% in 2026.

The returns from marquee sports events might be plateauing, as the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix has settled near the $1 billion mark the last two years after its first iteration generated $1.5 billion, according to Applied Analysis. Jeremy Aguero, the firm’s principal analyst, told iGB in June that while the NBA’s reach is “significant”, the idea that Las Vegas’ growth “can be exponential into perpetuity I think is an unfair expectation for the market”. In June, Formula One announced the Las Vegas race would remain on the annual calendar until at least 2037.

Wynn CEO Craig Billings also seemed to throw a bit of cold water on the NBA’s value generation on his company’s second-quarter call this month. Billings said the glut of NBA regular season games compared to NFL (41 versus eight or nine) inherently dilutes the value they bring. While any addition to the calendar is positive, Billings said Wynn usually only benefits from a small number of high-value travellers, like those “who are affiliated with the league and with the opposing teams”, not fans.

Optimism despite stagnant rates

For the broader US economy, ever-evolving tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran have dampened expectations for what many hoped would be a strong economic year. Stock markets have soared to new highs but many other metrics are less rosy.

Inflation in the US was at 3.4% in July, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and the Fed has kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% all year after investors expected multiple cuts prior to the war. On Kalshi and Polymarket, the odds for the Fed keeping rates steady again in September are currently at 73%, while a rate hike is is the underdog. Traders do not expect a rate cut, either in September or through the rest of the year.

Sticky inflation and stagnant interest rates are typically a bad combination for dealmaking, and there are few buyers who can pony up $9 billion or more for a Las Vegas NBA team even under more favourable terms. Yet there is continued optimism in financial spheres that a Middle East resoluti...