Brazilian households lost BRL62.5 billion ($12.5 billion) to betting operators in 2025, a study has found.
At the same time, these companies handled BRL350.97 billion in transactions via Pix (instant cash transfer).
This conclusion comes from the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States. The figures are higher than those recorded by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), the regulator of betting in Brazil.
The study was prepared by Comsefaz (National Committee of Secretaries of Finance) in partnership with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. It utilised data from the Central Bank, EPAE (Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity) and the authors’ own calculations.
Illegal market
A study by LCA Consultores, a market intelligence firm based in São Paulo, for the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) estimated that underground betting operations accounted for between 41% and 51% of the market. The difference between the estimates from Comsefaz (BRL62.5 billion) and the Ministry of Finance (BRL36.9 billion) was BRL25.6 billion. This figure represented approximately 41% of the total estimated in the report. This percentage aligned with the lower end of the range projected by LCA.
According to the Brazilian newspaper Folha, the study highlighted that the regulation of betting operators coincided with a structural shift in Pix transfers from individuals to businesses in the arts, culture, sports and recreation sectors.
The BRL62.5 billion figure represented the net transaction value (money wagered minus the amount returned as winnings). According to the report, this amount was equivalent to approximately 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households. This indicated that the growth of betting operations has begun to have measurable effects on the financial dynamics of Brazilian households.
Pix
The report analysed the impact of regulated betting operators on Pix transactions between October 2024 and March 2026.
To do this, researchers estimated the expected volume of transfers from individuals to companies in the arts, culture, sports and recreation sectors, assuming the regulatory change had not occurred. They then compared this projection with the figures recorded. The difference between the two scenarios was interpreted as the impact attributable to betting operators.
As this was a statistical simulation, the authors emphasised that the result did not represent a proven cause-and-effect relationship.
The report highlighted that the ban on betting for Bolsa Família beneficiaries led to a slowdown in transaction growth. This brought the estimated transfer volume closer to the observed volume.
According to the study, the fact that the ban had a measurable effect on the aggregate transaction volume suggested that lower-income families play a significant role in the Brazilian online sports betting market.
一项研究发现，2025年巴西家庭因博彩运营商损失了625亿雷亚尔（125亿美元）。
与此同时，这些公司通过Pix（即时转账）处理的交易额达3509.7亿雷亚尔。
这一结论来自第三版《巴西各州财政公报》。这些数字高于巴西博彩监管机构——彩票与博彩秘书处（SPA）所记录的数据。
该研究由Comsefaz（全国财政厅局长委员会）与塞尔索·富尔塔多国际发展政策中心合作完成。研究使用了中央银行、EPAE（按经济活动划分的支付统计）的数据以及作者自身的计算结果。
非法市场
总部位于圣保罗的市场情报公司LCA Consultores为巴西负责任博彩研究所（IBJR）开展的一项研究估计，地下博彩业务占市场的41%至51%。Comsefaz的估算（625亿雷亚尔）与财政部（369亿雷亚尔）之间的差异为256亿雷亚尔。这一数字约占报告估算总额的41%。该百分比与LCA预测范围的下限相符。
据巴西《页报》报道，该研究强调，博彩运营商的监管恰逢Pix转账从个人向艺术、文化、体育和娱乐行业企业转移的结构性转变。
625亿雷亚尔这一数字代表净交易额（投注金额减去作为奖金返还的金额）。根据报告，这一金额约相当于巴西家庭可支配总收入的0.68%。这表明博彩业务的增长已开始对巴西家庭的财务动态产生可衡量的影响。
Pix
该报告分析了受监管博彩运营商在2024年10月至2026年3月期间对Pix交易的影响。
为此，研究人员估算了在假设监管变化未发生的情况下，个人向艺术、文化、体育和娱乐行业企业转账的预期交易量。随后，他们将这一预测与记录的数据进行了比较。两种情景之间的差异被解释为可归因于博彩运营商的影响。
由于这是一项统计模拟，作者强调该结果并不代表已证实的因果关系。
报告强调，禁止Bolsa Família受益者参与博彩导致交易增长放缓。这使估算的转账量更接近实际观察到的交易量。
根据该研究，禁令对总交易量产生了可衡量的影响，这一事实表明低收入家庭在巴西在线体育博彩市场中扮演着重要角色。